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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It commonly functions as a type of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement is handed the prize. However, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or simply the greatest surprise.

But the latest field is fundamentally different. The list of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference champions fading and recent also-rans rising in unison. During an normal season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this chaotic and fun season, he's up against several other exceptional candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a normal year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, he trusted newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still