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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity provided through current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.