Is the Entertainment Fading? This Decline of the Goal Scoring
One of the biggest stories of the EPL season so far concerns the decline of scoring in open-play scenarios and the way teams are finding goals more from set-pieces instead.
Comparing how goals have been scored to the first 11 games the prior season, we see a drop of 39 goals in open play and 26 more from set-plays and penalties, resulting in 13 fewer overall.
Considering overall statistics, shot attempts teams are taking show a staggering 370 fewer in open-play than at this stage last time out.
Even with the significant rise in dead-ball scores, there have actually been only two additional attempts generated from them excluding penalties, demonstrating the efficiency clubs are at devising strategies to score from dead-ball chances.
Goal Averages Show the Tale
301 total goals notched in 110 games up to now works out at 2.74 goals per fixture, if this persists for all 38 games might be the smallest for since 2020-21, from five seasons ago (2.69 average).
But just 196 goals coming in open-play averages out 1.78 per fixture and is on course to be the least for 16 seasons, back in 2009-10 (1.76 per game).
That campaign also marks the sole English top-flight season to experience goals scored more frequently from set-plays excluding penalties than this season's rate of 0.77 each match (0.79).
Which Teams Are Most Responsible?
Regarding scoring from open-play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have recorded the largest decline, registering only four in 11 matches, 10 less than at this stage the previous campaign.
Excluding Wolves, the Premier League's drop in goals from open play is largely a London thing, with half of the city's seven teams recording at least five less scores from open-play than last season.
To be fair, that's largely down to them netting lots of goals at the start of last season instead of them having difficulty to convert in open-play this season.
Conversely City have experienced the largest rise, with nearly all of their 23 goals this season originating in open-play.
Set-Piece Success
Looking at the promoted teams with those that were relegated that they superseded. Play-off winners Sunderland have netted three extra scores in open play than the Saints achieved in their first 11 games en route to relegation last season.
In terms of scoring from set-plays (aside from spot-kicks), Arsenal and the Blues have seen the biggest increase, with the two clubs compensating for the five less scores that they've netted in open-play with the same number from set-pieces.
Man United have netted double the number goals from set-pieces as they managed in matchday 11 the previous campaign prior to Ruben Amorim took over, while Sunderland additionally are better at netting than the similar-colored team that went down.
Manchester City seem unaware of the memo about increasing scoring from set-plays, because they've netted three fewer than last season, as have the Reds, although that might be down to the tactical shift they're working to install.
League-Wide Trends
Six sides – the Gunners, Chelsea, Fulham, Newcastle, Tottenham and the Hammers – are this season's primary examples by scoring fewer goals from open-play and more from set-pieces, while Man City stand as the sole team to go against the grain to date by doing the exact opposite.
It will be fascinating to watch if sides carry on to rely so heavily on set-plays as matches continue or if they regain their all-round creativity and start netting additional scores in open play too.
